PHYSICS-BASED SEISMIC SCENARIO OF THE 2007 CHUETSU-OKI EARTHQUAKE

Abstract eng:
This study presents a preliminary calibration of a large-scale seismological model of the MW 6.6 Niigata-Ken Chuetsu-Oki (Japan) earthquake of July, 16th 2007. The strong ground motion affected a wide area in the surrounding of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP). Due to the relative small source-to-site distance and shallow hypocenter depth, this seismic scenario resulted very interesting and well documented (a consistent database of seismic recordings is available). In this context, the test-case represents a suitable benchmark for the work-packages of the SINAPS@ project. SINAPS@ is the first French research project with the objective to quantify the uncertainty of the procedures to estimate the seismic risk. In this context, an omni-comprehensive approach is followed, modelling the wave-propagation from the fault to the structural components. This study is intended to describe the steps to build up and calibrate a reliable seismic scenario, capable to provide a synthetic wave-field at the regional scale. This objective is pursued by (1) assessing a stratified geological model for the Niigata region, (2) testing the effect of the source parameters in a kinematic approach (e.g. the rise time and the shape of the Source Time Function) and (3) checking the topography effect. A series of 3D source-to-site numerical simulations of the MW 4.4 NCOEQ2007 aftershock was therefore carried out with this regard (performed by means of the Spectral Element Method, SEM). The seismic scenario was calibrated with the aid of the semi-analytical solution provided by the Wave-Number Integration Method (WNI) and by comparing the synthetics with the recordings at several locations (i.e. the KNET-Kik-Net stations nearby and the KKNPP site). Finally, the forward physics-based analysis ended up by providing broad-band synthetic time-histories to be exploited in further studies as a reliable regional incident wave-field for the engineering bedrock

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