FROM STRUCTURAL PERFORMANCE TO LOSS ESTIMATION FOR (RE)INSURANCE INDUSTRY NEEDS: AN OVERVIEW OF THE VULNERABILITY ESTIMATION APPROACHES WITHIN EARTHQUAKE CATASTROPHE MODELS

Abstract eng:
One of performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) targeted eventual applications in practice is within catastrophe models. Vendor catastrophe models are broadly used within the (re)insurance industry for pricing natural catastrophe risk. The aim of the vulnerability module of all catastrophe models is common, to connect hazard intensities to loss due to damage. Nevertheless there is huge variation in the methods adopted and assumptions made within each model’s vulnerability module, depending on the vintage of the model and the understanding of the seismic hazard in the region. This overview was conceived after close evaluation of a large number of vendor catastrophe models for earthquake (for different regions and from different vendors). We summarize the general structure of catastrophe models and focus on the vulnerability module of seismic catastrophe models, including how PBEE approaches are used for vulnerability estimation and how uncertainty is quantified. The existing gap between the PBEE output and the loss calculation of catastrophe models is highlighted. A discussion is aimed to be initiated, regarding the future potential of PBEE to provide more useful outputs for loss estimation within cat models, for use in the (re)insurance industry.

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