000022069 001__ 22069
000022069 005__ 20170622145955.0
000022069 04107 $$aeng
000022069 046__ $$k2015-05-25
000022069 100__ $$aBozza, Anna
000022069 24500 $$aHOW CAN INSURERS GET PREPARED TO CATASTROPHES? ASSESSING EARTHQUAKE EXPECTED LOSSES FROM HISTORICAL CATALOGUE.

000022069 24630 $$n5.$$pComputational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earhquake Engineering
000022069 260__ $$bNational Technical University of Athens, 2015
000022069 506__ $$arestricted
000022069 520__ $$2eng$$aCountries around the world have had to face huge economic losses due to natural disasters over the past decade. This, of course represents a source of great concern for National Governments and even more so for the insurance industry. In the aftermath of a natural disaster, insurance and reinsurance markets are prone to severe insolvencies and destabilization. Therefore, the finance industry is looking for more reliable loss estimation procedures and insurance models, as effective means for resilience improvement. The present paper proposes an engineering-based methodology as a support for innovative insurance models. The study aims at defining a scientific instrument supporting insurers and reinsurers in forecasting expected losses and in mitigating the potential lack of financial capacity. This allows for catastrophe-linked modeling to be performed according to a riskbased framework. The proposed methodology is applied to the Italian residential building stock subjected to seismic risk. Expected losses are evaluated following the procedure outlined in Asprone et al. (2013)[1] for earthquake scenarios from the catalogue of historical earthquakes, of the National Institute of Volcanology and Geology (INGV) [2] and assuming present-day exposure characteristics. Hence the procedure can be implemented anywhere else a detailed catalogue collecting information about earthquakes from the past is available, as for Italy. Statistical simulations of ground motion intensity (peak ground acceleration, PGA) using multivariate normal distributions are performed for each earthquake. The simulated PGA values are calculated based on the ground motion prediction equation of Sabetta and Pugliese (1996)[3], whose coefficient are re-estimated by Bindi et al. (2009)[4], for each Italian Municipality. A set of different fragility curves from the literature has been selected and averaged for each building type, also accounting for seismic and non-seismic design. In the next step, the annual expected losses for insurers are evaluated and the results are aggregated in order to calculate total losses for the entire National building stock. Linear regression analysis is performed for predicting the expected loss as a function of earthquake magnitude. The resulting loss model can be used for efficient and rapid loss estimation for a given earthquake scenario.

000022069 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000022069 653__ $$aPBEE, economic resilience, insurance industry, probability-based loss assessment, earthquake simulation.

000022069 7112_ $$aCOMPDYN 2015 - 5th International Thematic Conference$$cCrete (GR)$$d2015-05-25 / 2015-05-27$$gCOMPDYN2015
000022069 720__ $$aBozza, Anna$$iManfredi, Gaetano$$iJalayer, Fatemeh$$iAsprone, Domenico
000022069 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000022069 8564_ $$s822823$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/22069/files/C1116.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, section: 
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000022069 962__ $$r22030
000022069 980__ $$aPAPER