POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY OF A COMMUNITY AND ITS ELECTRICAL POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM

Abstract eng:
Research from the past ten years shows that the seismic fragilities of different infrastructure networks are better understood and estimated than the recovery of a community subjected to these fragilities. Modeling the recovery process for a specific infrastructure system-community-hazard combination is a challenging task due to the lack of data and because the recovery process is subject to a large set of interdependent factors and variables. The primary objective of the present work is to understand how typical modeling assumptions affect the estimated seismic resilience of a community, whose electrical power supply network has been affected by an earthquake. The recovery model relies on component recovery probability functions conditioned on the initial post-disaster damage state of the single components. The loss of resilience (LOR) of a set of systems, composed by an electric power supply system and a community demanding electric power is assessed using a compositional approach to quantify the loss of resilience of the combined system. The modeling assumptions that are considered are: a) the time-varying recovery function, and b) the probabilistic model for recovery. For the recovery function, the adopted probability model of the infrastructure system is found to have a strong influence on the loss of resilience, while it is relatively insensitive to that of the community. LOR is also observed to have a significantly higher sensitivity towards the mean of the used recovery functions than towards their variance.

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