Florida Public Hurricane Loss Projection Vulnerability Model: Implementation and Validation

Abstract eng:
This paper presents vulnerability component of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Projection Model developed at the request of the Florida Department of Financial Services. This is one of the first public models entirely accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community. The model incorporates state -of-theart techniques in hurricane prediction, and vulnerability modeling based on engineering criteria. Although the model was developed for Florida, it is applic able to any hurricane prone region. The vulnerability model uses a Monte Carlo simulation based on a component approach to determine the external vulnerability of buildings at various wind speeds. The building internal and contents damage, as well as the additional living expenses, are then extrapolated from the external damage. The resulting estimates of total building damage results in the formulation of vulnerability matrices for each statistically significant building type in the Florida building stock. The process is repeated for three categories of building, weak, medium, and strong, representing different construction practices over the years. The damage model is complemented by estimates of appurtenant structures damage. Results obtained by using the model are validated against actual claim data provided by insurance companies.

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