Ensembles of Wind Footprints for Real Time Assesment of Hurricane Losses

Abstract eng:
This paper introduces the concept of creating an ‘ensemble’ set of weighted hazard footprints in realtime for the assessment of financial losses. This ensemble set can be viewed as a Monte Carlo set of events, conditional on the actual event itself and the available data at a particular time. For this purpose, a parametric model is used for developing wind field footprints until an optimal statistical fit is achieved with the observations. The ensemble set of footprints is used to propagate the parameter uncertainty to give a probabilistic wind speed surface and loss estimate. An ensemble of rainfall footprints is derived as well. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a reconstruction of hurricane Ivan (2004).

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