000004268 001__ 4268
000004268 005__ 20141118185754.0
000004268 04107 $$acze
000004268 046__ $$k2005-05-31
000004268 100__ $$aWilloughby, Hugh E.
000004268 24500 $$aEarly 21st Century Hurricane Threats: Maximum Potential Intensity, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Global Warming, and Chance

000004268 24630 $$n10.$$pProceedings of the Tenth Americas Conference on Wind Engineering
000004268 260__ $$bAmerican Association for Wind Engineering, 2005
000004268 506__ $$arestricted
000004268 520__ $$2eng$$aThree hurricanes—Charley, Frances, and Jeanne—struck Florida directly in 2004. A fourth, Ivan, whose center crossed the coastline over Gulf Shores, Mississippi, caused devastation in Florida’s western Panhandle. The last time three hurricanes hit the state was 1960, and before that 1896. Are these cyclones a preview of what to expect in the early 21st century? Do they reflect natural cycles in hurricane activity, anthropogenic global warming, or simple bad luck? What should we expect that the human and economic impact of future hurricanes on the United Sates will be? 

000004268 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000004268 653__ $$aHurricane landfall, Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, normalized damage, global change HURRICANE CLIMATOLOGY A typical Atlantic Hurricane Season produces 10 or 11 tropical storms (maximum winds > 17 m s−1). Six of these normally become hurricanes (maximum winds > 33 m s−1). As shown in Figure 1, many years vary greatly from the average. The extremes are 1982, which produced only 2 hurricanes, and 1969, which produced 12 hurricanes. The record for tropical storm occurrence was 19 in 1995, although 1933, when records were less reliable than now, appears to have spawned 21. A typical season brings forth 2 hurricanes with maximum winds > 50 m s−1, called major hurricanes. Most Atlantic hurricanes begin as African waves in the barotropically unstable airflow between the deserts and savannahs of North Africa. Each year, this process generates 60–80 disturbances that could become tropical cyclones, but fewer than 10% actually do. Hurricanes that form from African waves are called “Cape Verde” Hurricanes. They account for most of the variability from one season to the next. In addition to the Cape Verde cyclones, 1-3 hurricanes form each year over the western Figure 1. Time series of occurrence of Atlantic tropical storms, Atlantic on the cyclonic vorticity hurricanes, and major hurricanes, 1886-2004. Cross hatching left by dissipating fronts or mesoscale convective systems. shows the inactive AMO phase 1970-1994. 001-Mitra.txt.txt 002-Mitra.txt.txt 003-Zhang.txt.txt 004-Gu.txt.txt 005-Hu.txt.txt 006-Reed.txt.txt 007-Reed.txt.txt 008-Thompson.txt.txt 009-Holmes.txt.txt 011-Womble.txt.txt 012-Ginger.txt.txt 013-Henderson.txt.txt 014-Bosch.txt.txt 015-Holmes.txt.txt 016-He.txt.txt 017-Liang.txt.txt 019-Liang.txt.txt 020-Yaragal.txt.txt 021-Llorens.txt.txt 022-Jeong.txt.txt 023-Pinelli.txt.txt 024-El-Fouly.txt.txt 025-Visscher.txt.txt 027-Powell.txt.txt 029-Wang.txt.txt 030-Ferrer.txt.txt 031-Liang.txt.txt 032-Kopp.txt.txt 033-Chen.txt.txt 034-Chen.txt.txt 035-Gilliam.txt.txt 036-Chock.txt.txt 037-Tse.txt.txt 038-Bove.txt.txt 039-DeSilva.txt.txt 040-Boldes.txt.txt 042-Unhale.txt.txt 043-Caracoglia.txt.txt 044-Caracoglia.txt.txt 046-Browne.txt.txt 047-Mishra.txt.txt 048-Zhu.txt.txt 049-Zhu.txt.txt 051-Gilliam.txt.txt 052-Beatty.txt.txt 053-VandePoll.txt.txt 054-Zhou.txt.txt 055-Borri.txt.txt 059-Zuo.txt.txt 060-Smith.txt.txt 061-Bi.txt.txt 062-Letchford.txt.txt 063-Chen.txt.txt 064-Chen.txt.txt 065-Scarabino.txt.txt 066-Lee.txt.txt 067-Quan.txt.txt 068-Hangan.txt.txt 069-Meroney.txt.txt 070-Subramanian.txt.txt 071-Millett.txt.txt 072-Chen.txt.txt 073-Xu.txt.txt 074-Cao.txt.txt 075-Letchford.txt.txt 076-Gast.txt.txt 077-Li.txt.txt 078-Vu.txt.txt 079-Jain.txt.txt 080-Mashnad.txt.txt 081-Mashnad.txt.txt 082-Alenzie.txt.txt 083-Alenzie.txt.txt 084-Al-Nassar.txt.txt 085-Alhajraf.txt.txt 087-Gurley.txt.txt 088-Gurley.txt.txt 089-Gurley.txt.txt 091-Lin.txt.txt 093-Chen.txt.txt 094-Gupta.txt.txt 095-Kareem.txt.txt 096-Bashor.txt.txt 097-Wang.txt.txt 098-Kilpatrick.txt.txt 099-Kilpatrick.txt.txt 100-Hill.txt.txt 101-Willoughby.txt.txt 102-Blessing.txt.txt 103-Masters.txt.txt 104-Masters.txt.txt 105-Masters.txt.txt 106-Masters.txt.txt 108-Irwin.txt.txt 109-Edwards.txt.txt 110-English.txt.txt 111-Guin.txt.txt 112-Diniz.txt.txt 113-Montefiore.txt.txt 114-Li.txt.txt 115-Cheng.txt.txt 117-Haan.txt.txt 119-Sarkar.txt.txt 120-Sarkar.txt.txt 121-Murgai.txt.txt 122-Khanduri.txt.txt 123-Kwon.txt.txt 124-Kijewski-Correa.txt.txt 125-Liu.txt.txt 127-Prevatt.txt.txt 128-Gardner.txt.txt 129-Tamura.txt.txt 130-Schroeder.txt.txt 131-Schroeder.txt.txt 132-Gupta.txt.txt 133-Kim.txt.txt 134-Goyal.txt.txt 135-Amoroso.txt.txt 136-Hebert.txt.txt 137-Burton.txt.txt 138-Jain.txt.txt 139-Scott.txt.txt 140-Lim.txt.txt 141-Endo.txt.txt 142-Malhotra.txt.txt 143-Uddin.txt.txt 144-French.txt.txt 145-Katsuchi.txt.txt 146-Giammanco.txt.txt 147-Tieleman.txt.txt 148-Kurita.txt.txt 149-Long.txt.txt 150-Li.txt.txt 152-Ham.txt.txt 153-Lee.txt.txt 154-Lee.txt.txt 155-Lee.txt.txt 157-Scarabino.txt.txt 158-Loredo-Souza.txt.txt 160-McElrath.txt.txt 161-Daneshvaran.txt.txt 162-Muir-Wood.txt.txt 163-Young.txt.txt 165-Hu.txt.txt 166-Hracov.txt.txt 167-Ahuja.txt.txt 168-Ahuja.txt.txt 169-Howard.txt.txt 170-Liu.txt.txt 171-Hill.txt.txt 172-Fox.txt.txt 173-Gregg.txt.txt 174-Chen.txt.txt 176-Easley.txt.txt 177-Levitan.txt.txt 178-English.txt.txt 179-Gibbs.txt.txt 180-Prasad.txt.txt 181-Loredo-Souza.txt.txt 183-Peacock.txt.txt 184-Chung.txt.txt 185-Leelani.txt.txt 186-Bermudez.txt.txt 187-Fritz.txt.txt 188-PengFrandsen.txt.txt 189-Kumar.txt.txt 190-TubbsFrandsen.txt.txt plenary-Blessman.txt.txt plenary-Cochran.txt.txt plenary-Powell.txt.txt plenary-Reinhold.txt.txt plenary-Twisdale.txt.txt

000004268 7112_ $$aTenth Americas Conference on Wind Engineering$$cBaton Rouge, Louisiana (US)$$d2005-05-31 / 2005-06-04$$g10ACWE
000004268 720__ $$aWilloughby, Hugh E.$$iMasters, Forrest J.
000004268 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000004268 8564_ $$s369292$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/4268/files/101-Willoughby.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, , paper No. 101.
000004268 962__ $$r4178
000004268 980__ $$aPAPER