Typhoon Simulation Technique incorporating Sea-surface Temperature

Abstract eng:
Design wind speed of a structure is decided by typhoons in most areas in Japan. It has been usually decided by extreme value analysis based on past wind speed records. On the other hand, a typhoon simulation technique has an advantage of very long term simulation realizing precise estimate of tail distribution over normal extreme value analysis. In addition, typhoon intensity is affected by sea-surface temperature (SST) in southern sea area of Japan, therefore global warming typically causing the increase of SST would affect, probably intensify typhoons approaching Japan. In order to investigate the effects of the increase of SST on typhoon frequency and intensity, a new typhoon simulation technique incorporating SST was developed. This paper presents the new simulation method and the effects of the increase of SST on typhoon frequency and intensity based on the simulation.

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