000004522 001__ 4522
000004522 005__ 20141118192703.0
000004522 0177_ $$2doi$$a10.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P226

000004522 0247_ $$210.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P226
$$adoi
000004522 04107 $$aeng
000004522 046__ $$k2012-05-23
000004522 100__ $$aKostyuchenko, Yuriy V.
000004522 24500 $$aRole of Systemic Risk in Regional Ecological Long-Term Threats Analysis

000004522 24630 $$n5.$$pProceedings of the 5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications
000004522 260__ $$bResearch Publishing, No:83 Genting Lane, #08-01, Genting Building, 349568 SINGAPORE
000004522 506__ $$arestricted
000004522 520__ $$2eng$$aPaper aimed to analysis of river and coastal ecosystem vulnerability toward rare events. Study area includes Southern part of Ukraine adjacent to Black Sea - Black Sea Lowland. For this area was calculated the risk of collapse of regional ecosystem.
 Analyzed emergency scenario describes critical degradation of regional ecosystem as the consequence of mutually-induced sequence of emergencies stimulated by anthropogenic activity. Scenario includes increasing of water temperature and nutrient concentration in offshore basins due to anthropogenic pollution, which leads to massive outgrowth of certain types of water vegetation. It could leads to degradation of water quality, significant mortality and/or massive migration of marine biota through decreasing of dissolved oxygen concentration and increasing of toxic substances concentration, significant transformations in coastal ecosystem, change of local landscapes bioproductivity, and capability to utilize the wastes. It will leads to additional degradation of offshore and onshore ecosystems, and minimize the recovering capabilities. This quick and considerable environmental degradation reflects on population morbidity, leads to increase the relevant risks.
 To obtain normalized spatial-temporal distribution of investigated parameters (disasters frequency, social-economic and climatic parameters) with rectified values of reliability the regularization algorithm was proposed. Analysis of regional meteorological observations allows to draw few important conclusions on long-term distribution of climatic parameters. Algae blooms observations were analyzed. Obtained results allow to understand observed distributions of algae blooms and trends of ecosystems bioproductivity. Distributions of blooms probabilities and most vulnerable time periods were determined. Distribution of different types of natural and technological disasters was analyzed. Results obtained allow to estimate mean probability of “trigger” pollution.
 Using proposed approach to integrated risk assessment the key parameters of scenario of ecological “chain” (“domino effect”) catastrophe were estimated. Relative input of uncontrolled distributed component (systemic risks) into systems security was assessed for described scenario.

000004522 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000004522 653__ $$aRiver and coastal ecosystems vulnerability and security, Systemic risks, Alga blooms, Disaster frequency distribution, “Domino” effect, Ecological collapse.

000004522 7112_ $$a5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications$$cSingapore (SG)$$d2012-05-23 / 2012-05-25$$gAPSSRA2012
000004522 720__ $$aKostyuchenko, Yuriy V.$$iKopachevsky, I.$$iZlateva, P.$$iStoyka, Yu.$$iAkymenko, P.
000004522 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000004522 8564_ $$s708466$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/4522/files/P226.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, .
000004522 962__ $$r4180
000004522 980__ $$aPAPER