000004537 001__ 4537
000004537 005__ 20141118192704.0
000004537 0177_ $$2doi$$a10.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P255

000004537 0247_ $$210.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P255
$$adoi
000004537 04107 $$aeng
000004537 046__ $$k2012-05-23
000004537 100__ $$aTaylor, Craig
000004537 24500 $$aPropagation of Uncertainties through Robust Simulation and Future Research

000004537 24630 $$n5.$$pProceedings of the 5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications
000004537 260__ $$bResearch Publishing, No:83 Genting Lane, #08-01, Genting Building, 349568 SINGAPORE
000004537 506__ $$arestricted
000004537 520__ $$2eng$$aThe fundamental question that has stimulated past papers is “How does one account for uncertainties in catastrophe risk analysis?” The additional question raised in this paper is “What role does propagation of uncertainty play in accounting for uncertainties?” 
We first illustrate how robust simulation helps to address these two questions. We use two credible but divergent accounts of earthquake risk models as illustrated through their application to industry-wide California insurance properties. We contrast the loss distribution results of these two earthquake risk models.
 After evaluating how these divergent approaches address the questions above, we then proceed with an illustration of how more advanced geo-science techniques may be considered in the process of building catastrophe risk models. We examine a project that uses kinematic models of the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and propagates seismic waves without uncertainties these events through the earth at depth. Based on this project, we address some of the possible pros and cons of extending this type of effort to the creation of kinematic source models that may better reflect what to expect in future earthquakes. Robust simulation requires more numerical accounting of uncertainties; this research project illustrates how one must qualify results in light of the constant challenges to our current knowledge.

000004537 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000004537 653__ $$aUncertainty, Catastrophe, Risk, Divergence, Kinematic, Robust, Simulation, Seismic, Waves, Propagation, Systematic.

000004537 7112_ $$a5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications$$cSingapore (SG)$$d2012-05-23 / 2012-05-25$$gAPSSRA2012
000004537 720__ $$aTaylor, Craig$$iGraf, William$$iLee, Yajie Jerry$$iHuyck, Charles$$iHu, Zhenghui
000004537 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000004537 8564_ $$s238474$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/4537/files/P255.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, .
000004537 962__ $$r4180
000004537 980__ $$aPAPER