000004539 001__ 4539
000004539 005__ 20141118192704.0
000004539 0177_ $$2doi$$a10.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P259

000004539 0247_ $$210.3850/978-981-07-2219-7_P259
$$adoi
000004539 04107 $$aeng
000004539 046__ $$k2012-05-23
000004539 100__ $$aFriis-Hansen, P.
000004539 24500 $$aManaging Uncertainties in Risk-based Adaptation to Climate Change

000004539 24630 $$n5.$$pProceedings of the 5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications
000004539 260__ $$bResearch Publishing, No:83 Genting Lane, #08-01, Genting Building, 349568 SINGAPORE
000004539 506__ $$arestricted
000004539 520__ $$2eng$$aThe changing climate may impose significant threats to infrastructures, human health, agriculture and other economic sectors, and as such climate change may potentially result in setbacks and losses for business and society. It is therefore paramount that adaptation measures are implemented timely and adequately to safeguard assets and resources for present and future generations. This requires rational decision making under a vast amount of uncertainties resulting from the necessary idealizations made in modeling physical processes, orography, etc.; the statistical analysis of climate projections; the uncertainties from modeling impacts to assets (the losses) that the changing climate may cause. A major challenge is to handle this vast amount of uncertainty that grows exponentially in length of the lead time (forecast horizon). Within climate science this exponential growth of uncertainties is called 'cascade of uncertainties'. 
 To assure transparency in handling all uncertainties as well as comparability between different adaptation studies, DNV is developing a Recommended Practice (RP) for adaptation to climate change with the objective to provide a rational framework for adapting structural systems. The framework makes use of a quantitative risk-based approach, where risk is measured as the expected monetary loss. The calculated monetary loss (the risk) may not represent a physically observable monetary loss. Rather, it is a decision variable that embraces all the above uncertainties. Decision strategies are needed for the timing of investments and allocation of resources to safeguard the future in a sustainable manner. The RP provides the basis for formulating such decision strategies.
 The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the RP and how uncertainties described by the large set of random variables (typically 50 to 100 of which only a few contribute significantly to the total uncertainty) entering the risk model can be managed. Part of the uncertainties can be reduced through (costly and time consuming) information gathering. Because of this, the decision theoretic Value of Information is illustrated as a mean to identify what variables that most effectively may reduce the total uncertainty.

000004539 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000004539 653__ $$aClimate change, Adaptation, Risk, Uncertainty, Value-of-Information, Decision making, Robustness.

000004539 7112_ $$a5th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications$$cSingapore (SG)$$d2012-05-23 / 2012-05-25$$gAPSSRA2012
000004539 720__ $$aFriis-Hansen, P.$$iGarré, L.$$iEriksson, K.
000004539 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000004539 8564_ $$s299184$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/4539/files/P259.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, .
000004539 962__ $$r4180
000004539 980__ $$aPAPER