A PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH TO DECISIONMAKING FOR EXPLOSIVELY-LOADED SHIP PANELS

Abstract eng:
Recent terrorist attacks in ROPAX vessels like that of SuperFerry 14, or that against Seabourn Spirit, have caused an increasing interest in the use of risk management techniques in assessing the vulnerability of ships to the hazards of maritime terrorism. In this work, probabilistic design analysis is used to predict the reliability index of the side shell of a ROPAX vessel from blast effects. First, several CFD models are developed to simulate the detonation of a series of threat scenarios for a given charge weight. Next, ANSYS Probabilistic Design System is used to estimate the response surface set of the side shell. Following that, CALREL software is used to calculate the reliability index. The trend of the equivalent stress as a function of the most significant random variables is also given together with the sensitivity analysis of the explosivelyloaded system. Furthermore, it is aspired that the results of the numerical analysis will bolster future research on the vulnerability requirements of explosively-loaded ship panels.

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