FROM PRESCRIPTIVE TO PROBABILISTIC RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODS

Abstract eng:
The dramatic development of computer technology makes it possible to consider a transition from current structural reliability assessment methods developed in the pre-computer era (such as Partial Factors Design applied in Eurocodes) to probabilistic methods using the simulation technique and increasing the potential of the available computers to their full. The paper briefly indicates the basics of a qualitatively new Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment (SBRA) method applicable in the design and in codes. The SBRA method applies non-parametric distributions, load duration curves, reference values and the simulation technique. Safety, serviceability and durability criteria are checked using an analysis of the appropriate reliability functions. The obtained probability of failure Pf is compared with the target probability Pd. The expansion of SBRA applications is from simple structures to the systems and is a subject of ongoing research efforts considering first and second order theories and time depending probability of failure. The principles of the SBRA method are indicated using a pilot study in this paper.

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