CALCULATION AND INTERPRETATION OF REALISTIC RELIABILITY ESTIMATES

Abstract eng:
The linking of advanced structural analysis and structural reliability analysis provides a basis to calculate ‘realistic’ estimates of structural reliability, rather than the ‘notional’ estimates used to develop design codes. The paper discusses two examples of ‘realistic’ reliability assessments for existing structures. One example concerns the calculation of a realistic ‘best estimate’ of the reliability of a critically weakened deteriorating structure, and the other example concerns a general procedure developed for the reliabilitybased load-rating of existing bridges that do not comply with current design standards. The realistic reliability estimates are based on different modelling assumptions than conventional (notional) reliability estimates. Important differences between ‘notional’, ‘realistic’ and ‘actuarial’ failure probabilities are identified in the paper, and implications concerning the interpretation and application of the different probabilities are discussed.

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