FIRST-PRINCIPLES COLLISION RISK ANALYSIS OF A ROPAX VESSEL

Abstract eng:
This paper is focusing in the establishment of a link between early design stages and collision hazards within a Risk-Based Design framework. In this way, a link is created between the operational profile of the vessel, its crashworthiness characteristics and its survivability potential. The objective is to provide the best possible design alternatives for assessing the safety levels of a ROPAX vessel against collision, which accounts approximately for 20% of all marine accidents. In the current context the event of collision appears to be the result of a failed closed-quarters navigational situation and the initiating event of more substantial consequences. That is, considering the increase of size of modern ROPAX vessels and the number of passengers on board, it is straightforward to appreciate the societal impact proportions of such an accident due to substantial loss of life. The study is based on the simplest possible risk definition as the product of probability and consequence. The element of probability incorporates the probability of collision, the probability of water ingress due to collision and the probability of flooding due to water ingress and collision occurrence.

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