000009503 001__ 9503
000009503 005__ 20141205150212.0
000009503 04107 $$aeng
000009503 046__ $$k2008-10-12
000009503 100__ $$aBeauval，C.,
000009503 24500 $$aTowards a Hybrid Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Methodology

000009503 24630 $$n14.$$pProceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
000009503 260__ $$b
000009503 506__ $$arestricted
000009503 520__ $$2eng$$aA key step in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is the prediction of expected ground motions produced by the seismic sources. Most probabilistic studies use a ground-motion prediction model to perform this estimation. The present study aims at testing the use of simulations in the probabilistic analysis, instead of ground-motion models. The method used is the empirical Green’s function method of Khors-Sansorny et al. (2005), which takes into account the characteristics of the source, propagation paths, and site effects. The recording of only one small event is needed for simulating a larger event. The small events considered here consist of aftershocks from the M6.4 les Saintes earthquake, which struck the Guadeloupe archipelago in 2004 (French Antilles). The variability of the simulated ground-motions is studied in detail at the sites of the French Permanent Accelerometric Array. Intrinsic variability is quantified: ground motions follow lognormal distributions, with standard deviations between 0.05 and 0.18 (log units) depending on the spectral frequency. One input parameter bearing large uncertainties is the stress drop ratio between the small and the target events. Therefore, overall sigma values (and medians) are recomputed, varying stress drop ratio values between 1 and 15. Sigma values increase but remain in general lower or equal to the sigma values of current ground-motion prediction models. A simple application of this hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method is carried out at several sites in Guadeloupe, for the estimation of the hazard posed by a M6.4 occurring in the rupture zone of the les Saintes event.

000009503 540__ $$aText je chráněný podle autorského zákona č. 121/2000 Sb.
000009503 653__ $$aSeismic hazard, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, strong motion, empirical Green’s functions

000009503 7112_ $$a14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering$$cBejing (CN)$$d2008-10-12 / 2008-10-17$$gWCEE15
000009503 720__ $$aBeauval，C.,$$iHonore, L.$$iCourboulex, Francoise
000009503 8560_ $$ffischerc@itam.cas.cz
000009503 8564_ $$s781280$$uhttps://invenio.itam.cas.cz/record/9503/files/07-0095.pdf$$yOriginal version of the author's contribution as presented on CD, Paper ID: 07-0095.
000009503 962__ $$r9324
000009503 980__ $$aPAPER