Quantifying the Seismic Resilience of Residential Communities: a Case Study for the City of Los Angeles

Abstract eng:
A conceptual framework and case study for quantifying the seismic resilience of residential communities is presented, which incorporates assessing building performance limit states, quantifying the influences of homeowners’ decision and explicitly simulating post-earthquake recovery. The building level limit states, which include damage triggering inspection, loss of functionality, unsafe to occupy, demolition and collapse, are characterized using fragility curves that link ground shaking intensity to the probability of exceedance. A methodology is presented for mapping the fragility parameters for damage states used in loss modeling (slight, moderate, extensive complete) to the recovery-based damage states considered in this study. Two alternative approaches to accounting for the uncertainty in the decision-outcomes of households affected by the disaster are presented. The first approach uses a purely theoretical model in which the household decision is assumed to be based on achieving the maximum utility. In the second approach, a statistical model is formulated based on the results of surveys in which participants are asked to choose from alternative courses of action based on a lived or simulated earthquake scenario. The post-earthquake recovery of occupiable housing is simulated using two alternative discrete-state probabilistic models. A preliminary case study was used to demonstrate the link between building fragilities and the immediate post-earthquake reduction and recovery of occupiable housing. The link between the duration of key activities and various stages of the recovery is highlighted.

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