Ground Motion Prediction Equation Applicable To Mega Earthquakes Considering Strong-Motion Generation Areas

Abstract eng:
Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are essential to evaluate seismic hazard, seismic risk, and also earthquake insurance. Recently, earthquake records around M9 have been observed such as the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake (Mw8.8) and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake (Mw9.0). For estimating such mega earthquakes by GMPEs, the functional forms become more important because such strong-motion records are rarely obtained. A ground motion prediction equation for strong motion spectra is empirically developed using the 1996-2015 K-NET and KiK-net database in Japan. The Mw and distance range from 4.5 to 9.0, and less than 300km, respectively. The GMPE parameters are Mw, stress drop, Xeq, region of Q, Vs30 and basin depth. As Xeq can incorporate the effects of fault extension and inhomogeneous energy radiation, and stress drops with Mw can incorporate short-period acceleration level into GMPE, the developed GMPE is applicable even for mega earthquakes with several SMGAs. Site amplification factors are also modeled by Vs30 and basin depth. Nonlinear site amplification correction factor is also investigated.

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