Do Existing Damage Scales Meet the Needs of Seismic Loss Estimation?

Abstract eng:
A seismic loss estimation model for direct financial losses requires three primary components: probable ground motions, damage to representative building types, and subsequent cost of damage. An effective damage scale that allows the components to be tied together is also essential. This is because a damage scale is used initially to define a level of damage caused by seismic ground motions, and subsequently to relate that damage level to cost. Several different damage scales are used in European seismic loss estimation modeling within the insurance industry, but do existing damage scales meet loss estimation needs? This paper explores the current usage of damage scales in European seismic loss estimation and presents a scoring method for assessing their suitability for this purpose. The scoring system both provides a rational and unbiased method for ranking damage scales but also highlights their weaknesses, providing a means for suggesting improvements to the current state-of-the art in earthquake loss estimation. It is concluded that no existing damage scale meets all the criteria for effective use in seismic loss modeling in a European context, and there is a need to improve links between damage, repair and direct financial losses in damage scales.

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