Improving Seismic Loss Estimation for Europe Through Enhanced Relationships Between Building Damage and Repair Costs

Abstract eng:
Within seismic loss estimation much research has been carried-out in regards to characterizing ground motions, but less in regards to building vulnerability (also known as fragility) and damage costs. There is especially little data in respect to earthquake damage costs. Reasons for this include the fact that major earthquakes are infrequent and do not always occur in the urban environment or affect the range of building types of interest. Furthermore, the usability of cost data in the latter case is often limited by the lack of detail in the associated cost data or by its unavailability. To circumvent this problem cost ratios (ratio of damage level to total construction replacement cost) are commonly used. However, the methodology for deriving cost ratios is often unsatisfactory given that supporting evidence of their applicability for diverse geographical areas and building types is not usually provided. New data and a new approach to cost ratio definition are presented in this paper. A survey of builders in seismically active Southern Europe was carried out to find representative prices of common repair types and new construction. The results are used to derive new ‘repair cost ratios’ and a proposal for a new damage scale and methodology to calculate cost ratios is presented. Consequent cost ratios are also given. This allows the user more flexibility in vulnerability analyses of ground motion on building performance as the cost will be derived not from generalized values of damage but from summation of the quantity of specified repair units. The manner in which this research can be used with vulnerability and seismic hazard studies is also outlined. This research will enable better-defined seismic loss estimation, especially where analytical vulnerability analyses are used, contributing to improved models that can be used by government planners or the insurance industry.

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