A Method for Comparison of Recent PSHA on the French Territory with Experimental Feedback

Abstract eng:
Recent Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Assessments (PSHA) studies on the French metropolitan territory exhibit very different seismic level. The two PSHAs considered in this paper are the study published by the MEDD (French ministry of environment and sustainable development) in 2002 and the study conducted by a working group of AFPS (French association of earthquake engineering) in 2006. These two studies are clearly not consistent in term of median values: we observe ratios of approximately 2 in term of PGA for a given return period and ratios of 10 between return periods for a given PGA. These discrepancies are a real serious problem for French Earthquake engineering. The purpose of this study is to compare PSHA of the French territory with experimental feedback and gives an objective point of view of the confidence on probabilistic models of seismic hazard based on observations. The PSHA considered is compared with seismic experience feedback provided by the survey system of EDF sites and by the RAP (French seismograph network). This paper develops a methodology based on a probabilistic approach. A statistic methodology of determination of soil-structure interaction (SSI), and specific soil effect is developed for each site where feedback is collected. These probabilistic models developed for each SSI and soil effect allows us to compare PSHA with feedback by a integration of both epistemic and random variability at each step of the methodology.

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