Estimating Ground Intensity for Hypothetical East Aomori Off Earthquake Using Observed Average S-Wave Velocity in Aomori Prefecture

Abstract eng:
An occurrence possibility of magnitude 7 earthquake in east off Aomori prefecture is about 90% for next thirty years according to the national seismic hazard map for Japan published by the earthquake research committee, the headquarters for earthquake research promotion. The author estimates the seismic intensity of this kind earthquake around Aomori prefecture by combining empirical method. An amplification factor is estimated by an average S-wave velocity for top thirty meters. The average S-wave velocity is estimated by phase velocity of Rayleigh wave. Phase velocity of Rayleigh wave is deduced from microtremor exploration. As a result, the highest seismic intensity estimated by hypothetical fault model is about 5. This value is almost the same to the value of the 1968 Tokachi Oki earthquake that is a scenario earthquake in this region..

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