Development of Earthquake Scenarios for Use in Earthquake Risk Analysis for Lifeline Systems

Abstract eng:
In the most common probabilistic approach to multi-site seismic risk assessment, system response (losses, downtime, etc.) are computed for a comprehensive set of earthquake simulations (or scenarios), referred to here as an ‘event set’, to account for the potential risks from earthquakes in a region. Detailed models of large lifeline systems are often quite complex, so it may not be practical (or even possible) to analyze the system in detail for an exhaustive set of earthquake scenarios. This paper presents an improved methodology based on Chang et al. (2000) that better incorporates the ground motion uncertainty in the process of selecting a reduced set of hazard-consistent scenarios, and demonstrates its application to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power network systems.

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