Simplified Seismic Risk Quantification Methodology for Emerging Markets

Abstract eng:
Probabilistic seismic risk models have been widely accepted and used by the insurance and re-insurance industry over the past decade as risk quantification tools. However, because developing a detailed probabilistic risk model requires a significant amount of time, special expertise, and high expenses, seismic risk modeling tools generally have not been available in emerging markets. This paper introduces a simplified seismic risk modeling methodology based on experiences acquired in detailed probabilistic risk model development for countries with both high and low seismic risk. This methodology requires only key attributes such as the 500 year return period PGA, soil classification, approximate exposure, and design base shear or a design spectrum, in order to produce benchmark losses, including average annual losses, loss costs, and exceedance probability losses for key return periods. Simplification for PGA-based vulnerability development with performance design objectives and a hazard curve classification/mapping scheme are discussed in detail. Simplification of each risk component (hazard and vulnerability) is verified and calibrated using interim loss results from the separately-developed detailed probabilistic risk model. This case study uses a Chinese risk model as an example and demonstrates the impact of typical risk mitigation measures. Although estimated losses from this methodology involve many assumptions, they can be used as benchmark losses or one of the decision-making elements within preliminary risk assessments in emerging markets. This methodology is particularly applicable in areas of high earthquake potential and high building vulnerability due to the lack of building code enforcement.

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