Estimation of Source Parameters of Mega-Fault Systems for Strong Ground Motion Prediction -Test Case: Arima-Takatsuki Fault Zone-

Abstract eng:
Predicting strong ground motion by earthquakes occurring on crustal mega-fault systems is crucial when we need to consider low occurrence-rate strong ground motion for seismic design of buildings. In order to predict strong ground motion by earthquakes occurring on inland crustal mega-fault systems, we need to estimate fault parameters for earthquakes of this kind. Since instrumental recording started in Japan, we have not encountered any inland crustal earthquakes that exceed magnitude 8. The source parameters of a mega-fault system from recorded earthquakes on the same fault system are estimated. The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan has evaluated several inland crustal mega-fault systems that will exceed magnitude 8 in Japan. For a test case the Arima-Takatsuki fault zone that extends about 130 km is considered. Source parameters of the Keicho-Fushimi earthquake of 1596, that ruptured the whole mega-fault system of the Arima-Takatsuki fault zone is estimated. Source parameters of the Hyogoken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake of 1995 that occurred on the south-western portion of the same fault system have been estimated by Matsushima and Kawase (2006). Source parameters of the two earthquakes are compared, and the distribution of the stress drop seems to resemble each other. Although his result needs further investigation, it may be an indication that it can be used to estimate parameters for future earthquakes of mega-fault system from smaller earthquakes occurring on the same fault system.

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