Resilus -- Modeling Community Capital Loss and Recovery

Abstract eng:
A resilient community is one that does not experience serious degradation in critical services when an earthquake or other natural hazard occurs and, in the event of degradation or failure, recovers to a similar or better level of service in a reasonable amount of time. Critical services with respect to community resilience are those derived from and required for community capital – physical, socio-cultural, human, economic, and ecological capital. If a community’s critical services and capital are not resilient in the face of a severe economic or natural disturbance, the result will likely be disaster and serious impairment of personal livelihoods. The most efficient means of making a community resilient is to make its critical services and capital robust – minimize damage/loss probability or the consequences from damage/loss through mitigation. If a community’s critical services and capital are not robust, efforts must be put into recovery. Based on the measurable aspects of community capital, we have developed a simulation model called ResilUS that operationalizes community resilience across multiple, hierarchical scales–– household/business, neighborhood, and community––in relation to a range of policy and decision variables associated with each scale. The first application and calibration study of ResilUS was conducted for the 1994 Northridge earthquake disaster. ResilUS is currently being expanded to better represent socio-cultural, personal, and ecological capital to facilitate modeling the resilience of the Gulf Coast area of Louisiana, USA in association with the 2005 Hurricane Rita disaster.

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