Estimate of the Probable Maximum Loss PML in Lima and Callao: Application to the Peruvian Insurance Industry

Abstract eng:
A methodology to estimate the probable maximum loss (PML) for insurance constructions is presented. The methodology includes regional seismic hazard analysis, ground motion estimation, structural vulnerability evaluation and net losses excedance computation. Computed for the first time in Peru, an estimation of the PML for 42 districts of Lima and Callao was carried out using the proposed approach. Laboratory and field tests were performed and the geotechnical characteristics of the study zone. The structural analysis was performed for building with insurance against seismic hazards. A field work was executed to get some characteristic of the buildings needed to estimate the structural vulnerability like number of stories, lateral configuration and conservation of the building. A study of the structural vulnerability was carried out based on the inter-story drift of the buildings. Analysis of the damage and rehabilitation costs were performed, vulnerability curves for different structural configurations were proposed. Finally, the probable maximum loss (PML) is presented as a function of return period. Based on the results, an insurance company can determine the constitution of its catastrophic reserve in a reliable way.

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