Open-Source Software and Treatment of Epistemic Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Modelling

Abstract eng:
Earthquake loss modelling is a multidisciplinary activity which requires the collection of databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, ground-motion prediction models, building stock and infrastructure exposure, vulnerability characteristics of the exposed elements, repair costs and human casualties. Each component of the model carries large associated uncertainties which need to be propagated through the analysis, such that the total uncertainty in the resulting loss estimates can be obtained. However, a number of epistemic (i.e. knowledge-based) uncertainties present within a given method are often not accounted for. This paper describes various studies which have looked at the influence of these uncertainties in the loss model results and makes proposals for how these uncertainties could be included in future earthquake loss models.

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