A Risk Assessment Method for Traffic Function of Highway Bridges with Earthquake Damage

Abstract eng:
This study proposes a method of assessing loss in surplus value of traffic flow in highway network with many damaged bridges so as to estimate the optimal allocation budget for seismic retrofitting. The deficit value of traffic flow in damaged network that means drivers’ disutility takes a role in estimating one of risks. The study, employs long-term Risk-Shifting problem such as a compensation mechanism in order to indemnify the drivers’ disutility, analyzes the problem between the travelers and the administrative body who have asymmetrical information about highway facilities and/or traffic conditions. This problem can be feasible to assess drivers’ travel risks from designing compensation system, in which the amount of losses many drivers would suffer during a disaster can be provisionally shifted toward the administrative body as insurance premium. In the scheme, thus the administrative body can carry seismic retrofitting projects under aggregated premium on the basis of prioritized order in accordance with evaluated risks of being damaged to bridges. Therefore, the premium has an ability to assess travel risks. In the paper, the optimal solution is proved that travelers’ losses cannot be guaranteed unless additional reparation is concerned. Besides, it is confirmed that the amount of optimally additional compensation has a strong point to evaluate risks in trips as well as to estimate the optimal allocation budget for seismic preparedness on highway bridges. The paper presents the mathematical analysis and the numerical result of applying to the highway network in Tokyo Metropolitan area.

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