The Economic Impact of a Great Earthquake in the Capital Region of China

Abstract eng:
In 1679, Beijing was directly hit by a magnitude 8 earthquake -the Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake, one of the largest historic earthquakes in eastern China. In this study, we investigated the potential economic impact of a similar earthquake hitting the capital region. We developed an earthquake loss estimation model with ground motion intensity calculation and building vulnerability functions specifically calibrated for northeastern China. We use this model to study the effects of rupture scenarios that account for the variation in rupture source parameters and ground motion uncertainties on regional loss distributions. The results show that a repeat of a Sanhe-Pinggu type event near the capital region could cause property damage of over 900 billion Yuan. This is equivalent to about 28% of the total GDP of the five provincial municipalities affected by the event, or 4% the national GDP in 2006.

• Export as: BibTeX | MARC | MARCXML | DC | EndNote | NLM | RefWorks
• Add to your basket