Implications of Strong Ground Motion Complexity for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Abstract eng:
The use of deterministic ground motion simulations in seismic hazard assessment is currently a rapidly growing field of research. The advantage of such methodologies is that detailed information about the characteristics of strong ground motion can be obtained because they are based on earthquake scenarios. A method for calculating the broadband frequency ground motion due to a scenario earthquake will be presented. In our hybrid model we combine the deterministic simulation of the low frequencies with a semi-stochastic simulation of the high frequencies using empirical Green’s functions. Examples from two case studies (the Dec 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquake and an expected future earthquake in the Marmara Sea) are used to illustrate the various aspects of the method. Furthermore, the effects of varying the input source and attenuation parameters on the simulated ground motion are quantified. One limitation of the deterministic methodologies is that the hazard assessment is usually conducted due to a single scenario earthquake. In many regions, however, the seismic hazard is combined from the threat of several active faults for which several scenario earthquakes can be defined with different probabilities of occurrence. Future plans towards the implementation of deterministic earthquake scenarios in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations are investigated.

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