Earthquake Loss Estimation and Mitigation in Europe: A Review and Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Abstract eng:
The paper contributes to an assessment of the uncertainties involved in the use of current loss modeling methodologies when applied to the estimation of building damage and casualty generation in urban areas. The work derives from studies conducted within the EU-funded LESSLOSS project with the aim of providing a basis for urban planning authorities methods to assess alternative mitigation strategies. Research teams in Istanbul, Thessaloniki and Lisbon developed methods applicable to their own city and building stock. A benchmarking study was then carried out to compare the results of the three approaches when applied to a standardized “urban block”. The paper, presents the results of the benchmarking study, and reviews the differences between the loss estimation approaches used, There are significant differences in surface ground motion, and even greater differences in predicted damage and casualties resulting from the ground motions using the different approaches. The paper discusses possible reasons for these differences and the implications for the estimation of uncertainty in urban loss estimation.

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