Estimating Ground-Motion Variability: Issues,Insights & Challenges

Abstract eng:
The variability (sigma) associated with empirical ground-motion prediction equations has a significant impact on the results of seismic hazard analysis, and in some cases represents the main source of uncertainty. Consequently, numerous attempts have been made at reducing the value of sigma, mostly without success. The root of the problem lies in the fact that the models that are fitted to the data during the regression process are highly idealised with respect to the physical processes actually taking place during the generation and propagation of seismic waves. Assumptions regarding the functional form and measurement errors in both the predicted and the explanatory variables might also contribute to the variability, but their impact generally remains marginal. The present paper reviews the key methodological aspects involved in the estimation of sigma, with the aim of identifying the approaches that are the most promising in terms of reducing the value of sigma.

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