State-of-the-Art of European Earthquake Loss Estimation Software

Abstract eng:
A review of the state-of the art of loss estimation methodology and software has been carried out as part of subproject JRA3 of the NERIES (Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology) project currently being carried out in Europe. This subproject is more specifically concerned with the development of a pan-European loss estimation tool for rapid post-earthquake response in urban environments. Following a literature review of the most recent developments in urban earthquake loss estimation methodology, information about existing software tools for earthquake loss estimation has been gathered and critically reviewed. In particular, the software packages have been examined in terms of their suitability for application in a pan-European context, and for use in a rapid post-earthquake response situation. To assess the capabilities of existing European loss estimation tools, a damage estimation exercise has been carried out using the building stock inventory and population database of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and selected European earthquake loss estimation packages: KOERILOSS, SELENA, ESCENARIS, SIGE and DBELA. The input ground-motions, common to all models, correspond to a “credible worst-case scenario” involving the rupture of the four segments of the Main Marmara Fault closest to Istanbul in a Mw 7.5 earthquake. The results in terms of predicted building damage and social losses are critically compared amongst each other, as well as with the results of previous scenario-based earthquake loss assessments carried out for the study area. The key methodological aspects and data needs for European rapid post-earthquake loss estimation in urban centres are thus identified.

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