Modelling Fires Following Earthquakes in New Zealand

Abstract eng:
Fires following earthquakes may develop into urban conflagrations with substantial loss of life and property. Two geographic information system (GIS) models linked to property and valuation data have been developed over the last six years as tools for estimating fire losses in Wellington by GNS Science and Victoria University of Wellington. The simpler static model determines the extent of fire spread and is suitable for probabilistic loss modelling. In the second model, a dynamic cellular automaton technique determines the rate and extent of fire-spread in response to factors including wind, radiation, sparking, branding, building separations and building claddings. Estimated losses for Wellington City vary between 5% and 60% of the total building stock, depending on wind speed, compared with about 30% for shaking losses only. More detailed studies of the Wellington Central business district, pilot studies incorporating the effect of vegetation between buildings and an assessment of the suitability of the dynamic model for pure vegetation fires has also been carried out. Validation against post-earthquake fires in Napier (1931) and Kobe (1995) and a small recent fire in Wellington has been carried out with good results. The dynamic model is being further developed to include effects of ground slope and as a potential fire fighting and/or planning and training tool for the New Zealand Fire Service.

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