Development of Fragility Curves Using High Dimensional Model Representation

Abstract eng:
Fragility curves represent the conditional probability that a structure’s response may exceed the performance limit for a given ground motion intensity. The use of fragility curves for the assessment of seismic losses is in increasing demand, both for pre-earthquake disaster planning as well as post-earthquake recovery and retrofitting programmes. Conventional methods for computing building fragilities are either based on statistical extrapolation of detailed analyses on specific buildings or based on Direct Monte Carlo simulation with these models. The Monte Carlo technique usually requires a relatively large number of simulations in order to obtain a sufficiently reliable estimate of the fragilities making it computationally expensive and time consuming. High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) response surface methodology on the other hand simplifies the process of fragility computation. It is used to replace the algorithmic performance-function with an explicit functional relationship, fitting a functional approximation, thereby reducing the number of expensive numerical analyses. After the functional approximation has been made, Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the fragility curve of the system.

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