Estimation of the Potential Earthquake Probabilities in Taiwan

Abstract eng:
Taiwan is located on the boundary between Eurasia Plate and Philippines Sea Plate and earthquakes occur frequently. Since the seismic hazard is inevitable in Taiwan, it is suggested to reduce the seismic hazard. Promotion of seismic hazard mitigation is time-consuming and needs comprehensive resources. Due to limited resources for hazard mitigation, it is suggested to set priority first for regions with high potential of earthquake disaster. In this study, we separated the earthquake source in Taiwan into regional and fault sources, and calculated the potential earthquake probabilities in next 10 to 50 years respectively. For regional source, we analyzed the 13 regions, which used by Taiwan Power Company for Nuclear Power Plant’s seismic safety evaluation. We set up the earthquake probability models, and calculate the probabilities for the potential earthquake of each region. As for fault sources, we refer to the active fault parameters investigated by the Central Geological Survey of Taiwan, MOEA, set up the characteristic earthquake probability model, and calculated the probabilities for potential earthquake of each fault. Finally, we estimated the ground motion potential of peak ground acceleration by attenuation relation of PGA for each fault, and the PGA values are improved in prediction by taking into account the site effect. In this study, we can identify the region with high potential earthquake probabilities, these results can be used for seismic hazard prevention and disaster mitigation in Taiwan.

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