Urban Utility Ignition Model, a Probabilistic Approach for Modeling Fire Following Earthquake

Abstract eng:
This paper presents the methodology proposed for modelling ignitions caused by urban utility network following earthquakes. In this model ignition following earthquake is modelled probabilistically, being dependent on several parameters such as strong ground motions, volume of utility network, type of gas pipeline, type of power network and urban building density. In order to consider uncertainties associated with the parameters controlling urban utility ignitions, an analytical approach using logic tree and Monte Carlo simulation process is proposed here. A GIS-based computer program has been also designed and developed in this work which can estimate ignition probability for urban utility network following earthquakes. As a pilot study, the utility network for a city district in northern Tehran, the capital city of Iran is modelled in this work. Preliminary results for a scenario earthquake as well as probabilistic earthquake scenarios are shown in this paper.

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