On the construction of fragility curves using approximation methods

Abstract eng:
Fragility curves that express the failure probability of a structure (and/or a structural components) versus a measure of an earthquake excitation level e.g. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), are found to be a useful tool for seismic vulnerability assessment. In civil engineering field, they can be used to predict seismic retrofitting decisions, disaster response planning, and prompt estimation of loss [1]… In nuclear engineering, together with seismic hazard and dominant sequences leading to core damage, they are one of three important ingredients for a seismic probabilistic risk assessment of a nuclear plant [2]. There are several methods to build fragility curves based on either empiric knowledge or Monte Carlo simulation approaches which are time consuming. In this study, efforts are turned to the economical computation of failure probability by approximated methods such as FORM, SORM, to establish fragility curves. These methods offer advantages in computation time and allows to deduce “design earthquakes” from the well-known “design point” of the structural reliability theory [3]. These design earthquakes can be then used as reference to justify whether a structure withstands under a given seismic level. The model of Boore [4] which takes seismic magnitude into account, path between source to site, diminution and amplification effects… is chosen for the simulation of earthquake ground motion. Numerical examples having linear and nonlinear behaviors are presented to illustrate the proposed method.

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