Prediction of Seismic Response Parameters of Typical Masonry Building with Consideration of Epistemic Uncertainties

Abstract eng:
The seismic risk assessment of structures is a complex problem, which combines seismic hazard analysis, structural vulnerability analysis and analysis of socioeconomic impacts. In addition, seismic risk assessment, especially in the case of old masonry buildings, is subject to many uncertainties, not only due to the random nature of earthquakes but also due to physical and modeling uncertainties related to prediction of structural vulnerability. Recent studies have shown that epistemic (modeling) uncertainties can significantly affect seismic response parameters. However, uncertainty analysis usually involves simulations, and it is therefore computationally extremely demanding, especially if seismic response parameters are computed by using nonlinear dynamic analysis. Therefore, simplified nonlinear seismic performance assessment method is used to estimate seismic response parameters for a set of structural models, which are determined by utilizing the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. The proposed method is demonstrated by means of an example of two masonry buildings, which are modeled and analyzed by using the computer program Tremuri. Results of the study indicate that the effects of epistemic uncertainties, in addition to aleatoric uncertainties, are significant.

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