Water level extremes at the Baltic Sea coast

Abstract eng:
The paper describes several new options to analyse and forecast possible changes in extreme water levels at the coasts of sea areas hosting substantial subtidal weekly-scale variations in the water level. The test area is the Baltic Sea. For a certain averaging interval (about 8 days) there exists a straightforward separation of the total water level into components driven by Gaussian and Poisson processes and representing the basin-scale and local phenomena, respectively. The contribution of the basin-scale phenomena into the increase in extreme water levels is almost constant for the entire study area whereas the contribution of local storm surges exhibit substantial spatial variations. The entire pattern of the changes in water level extremes signals a rotation of strong wind directions rather than an increase in the wind speed.

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