Robustness and Stability of Psha Results

Abstract eng:
In the past decades, many probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) have been performed on a regional or even sitespecific level. Today, some of them have been updates of previous estimates of the seismic hazard. This allows a discussion on the robustness and stability of PSHA results over time and also to reflect on the trend. It has been accepted in the scientific community that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to test PSHA results against data and check their validity through comparison. The paper discusses aspects of quality assurance as well as established processes of expert elicitation when dealing with large uncertainties. Scientific progress in earth sciences and new data is evaluated with respect to the need for updates and in light of their complexity. In the framework of codes and regulations, the question on robustness and stability – or even longevity – of results becomes very important. The latter can play an important role in the context of acceptability and credibility. With the help of some examples, the issues in evaluating the robustness and stability of PSHA results will be highlighted and future challenges will be shown. The case study used to demonstrate robustness is based on the PEGASOS and PEGASOS Refinement Project (PRP). In the conclusions, the paper makes an attempt to discuss and introduce criteria for the robustness and stability of PSHA results. To date, there is no measure for rationally evaluating the robustness of PSHA results. But there are qualitative means when comparing updated results with previous estimates. It is proposed to use a change of larger than 20% as quantification for a ‘significant’ change in the results.

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