Early 21st Century Hurricane Threats: Maximum Potential Intensity, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Global Warming, and Chance

Abstract eng:
Three hurricanes—Charley, Frances, and Jeanne—struck Florida directly in 2004. A fourth, Ivan, whose center crossed the coastline over Gulf Shores, Mississippi, caused devastation in Florida’s western Panhandle. The last time three hurricanes hit the state was 1960, and before that 1896. Are these cyclones a preview of what to expect in the early 21st century? Do they reflect natural cycles in hurricane activity, anthropogenic global warming, or simple bad luck? What should we expect that the human and economic impact of future hurricanes on the United Sates will be?

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