Seismic Risk Assessment of Large Dams

Abstract eng:
The large dam systems are high value infrastructure projects with significant importance. Inadequate seismic behavior of dams could lead to severe consequences for the local communities. Therefore, the seismic safety assessment of large dam systems is an important engineering task. “Tsankov Kamak” dam is the first double curvature arch dam in Bulgaria. The complex shape of the dam, the site seismic environment, and the peculiarities of the local geological conditions (weakened and weathered zones in the foundation rock) require detailed investigation of the seismic behavior of the dam and the foundation. The present paper describes the probabilistic evaluation of the seismically induced damages or failures of the dam wall and foundation. The parameters of the site specific seismic motion are based on results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Failure and damage scenarios are derived by deterministic dynamic analyses for maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and evaluation of ultimate bearing capacity of the dam wall. In the probabilistic evaluation of the dynamic behavior of the wall a Latin Hypercube (LHC) procedure is applied. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are used, including precise modeling of critical structure parts, i.e. contraction joints and base joints. Probabilistic assessment of damages and failure scenarios is performed and the scenarios with the highest probability of occurrence are presented.

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