Seismic Hazard Re-Analysis of Taiwan with the Consideration of Model Parameter Uncertainty

Abstract eng:
The key element in the estimation of seismic hazard is the consideration of uncertainties. One uncertainty is the incomplete knowledge of the nature of all inputs to the assessment and variability of interpretation of available data. The other uncertainty is related to the inevitable unpredictability of nature of the ground motion parameters (scatter of the data) (McGuire, 2004). Reliable estimation of the seismic hazard in a region requires the prediction of the size, location and magnitude of future earthquake events. This study proposes the modified procedure for the earthquake occurrence model of exponential frequency-magnitude relationship and applicable in calculating the seismic hazard. The two-phases procedure, which combines the cumulative occurrence rate of earthquake of m>M for normal earthquake and characteristic earthquakes, was setup to provide a correctly exponential frequency-magnitude relationship. Because of the occurrence rate of the characteristic earthquakes are totally considered in the exponential frequency-magnitude relationship. Thus, it is easy to improve the confidence in PSHA. Besides, the recurrence times of the observed data conforms to a non-stationary Poisson process was discussed. As shown in the simple case study, the seismic hazard curves are quite separate in the different periods for a given non-stationary Poisson occurrence model. Therefore, for identified source zone, the occurrence rate function in a Poisson occurrence model should be carefully estimated. The other hand, the ground motion prediction model in Taiwan shows the approximately evaluation as compared with the NGA models. It indicates that the attenuation relation including simple parameters for describing the ground motion estimation in Taiwan is adapted.

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