A Risk Management Scheme of Rockfall Accidents in Northern Gifu Prefecture Japan

Abstract eng:
Our aim in this study is to develop a practical prototype risk management scheme for the infrastructure against actual hazard of a specific event in a specific area, and to contribute reasonable and sustainable development from the view point of effective investment. This paper introduces an example of the risk management scheme focused on the road slope, which is the occurrence of rockfall along the major roads, in the Northern part of Gifu prefecture in Japan. In this study, the rockfall rate is estimated in two folds, relative rate and absolute one. First, the relative rate of rockfall is estimated by the logistic regression analysis based on the inventory data of slopes along the major roads in the region, which includes about 3000 slopes. And then the relative rate is calibrated to the absolute rate by using the actual rockfall event records. Meanwhile, following related damages caused by the rockfall occurrence at a given part of the road network in the area are all estimated: 1) physical loss, 2) human loss, 3) detour loss, 4) emergency medical service loss and 5) isolated colony loss. And, finally, it was attempted to determine the priority of countermeasure execution for respective slopes from both the risk intensity and the cost effectiveness (B/C), which is given by the ratio of the risk reduction effect by a countermeasure (B) and the countermeasure cost (C).

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