A Probabilistic Model for Deterioration Forecasting and Determination of Optimal Intervention Strategies for a Road Link

Abstract eng:
In this paper, a probabilistic model for the determination of optimal intervention strategies for a road link composed of multiple objects is proposed. The model is composed of a deterioration part and a strategy evaluation part. In the deterioration part, aWeibull hazard function is used to represent the deterioration of the individual objects. The deterioration is assumed with two condition states; 1) fully operational or 2) not fully operational. The Weibull distribution function is used because it is not memoryless, overcoming some of the criticisms of the widely used exponential distribution, and since it has been found to be a good representation of certain manifest deterioration processes in the past^1,2. To formulate the model, it is assumed that at condition state 2 a maintenance intervention must be executed. The values of the model parameters are estimated using past inspection data. The results of the deterioration part are then used as inputs in the strategy evaluation part, in which optimal intervention strategies for individual objects and for the link as a whole are determined. The determination of the optimal strategies takes into consideration impacts on multiple stakeholders³. The model is demonstrated by determining the optimal intervention strategies for a fictive road link composed of one bridge and two road sections. As a conclusion, the model can be used to determine optimal intervention strategies for a road link. However, by using only two condition states, This simplifi- cationmakes it necessary tomake a number of broad approximationswhich result in a significant loss of information in the determination of optimal strategies. It is believed that models that make it possible to take into consideration more than two condition states are more suitable for the determination of optimal intervention strategies for road sections affected by manifest processes. The investigated model may be more suitable when attempting to determine optimal intervention strategies for a road link affected by latent processes, such as flooding.

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