Target Probabilitiy of Failure for Quay Wall Foundation from LCC Analysis

Abstract eng:
We have carried out reliability analyses of gravity type quay walls and found sliding and foundation failure modes were dominant in quay wall structure. Our purpose was to estimate the target probabilities of failure in the bearing capacity of quay wall foundations. In order to consider the safety margin of structures that have been constructed so far, we assessed the reliability levels of existing structures. The mean probability of failure for quay walls was then evaluated. In addition, life cycle cost (LCC) analyses of representative quay walls were performed. The probability of failure for several quay walls was accordingly calculated by changing the width of each quay wall section. The LCC for each was estimated, and the probability of failure to minimize LCC was determined. Korean quay wall had an average probability of failures of 3.6%. The average optimum probability of failure for quay walls was found to be 4.0% in this study, which agrees with the theoretical values.

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