Evaluating Collapse Probability of Mountain Tunnels

Abstract eng:
Tunnel collapse is one of the most critical geo-hazards in tunnel construction in mountainous areas. The collapse potential of a tunnel is often assessed by finite element methods. To consider the uncertainties involved in tunnel collapse assessment, probabilistic methods can be adopted. The collapse probability of a tunnel can be calculated by Monte Carlo simulation, but the computational effort involved could be tremendous. This paper aimed to suggesting a convenient procedure for evaluating the collapse probability of tunnels in mountainous areas. The suggested method was based on strength reduction method and response surface method (RSM) together with a failure criterion upon permissible displacement. It was applied to assess a tunnel construction project and proved to be simple and feasible. Parametric studies were carried out to study how various factors could affect the tunnel collapse probability, including the distribution of basic random variables, the correlation coefficient among basic random variables, the type of the cross section of the tunnel, and the lining thickness.

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