Reliability Evaluation of Laterally Loaded Deep Foundation

Abstract eng:
New theoretical foundations for a novel reliability assessment method required for the reliability assessment of laterally loaded deep foundation will be presented. Reliability or “probability of failure” implies that the risk needs to be evaluated just before failure in the presence of several sources of nonlinearities. Finite element (FE)-based formulations are generally used to realistically consider different sources of nonlinearity and other performance enhancing features. For large geotechnical problems, the use of FE representation is becoming common. The authors are in the process of estimating reliability of complicated offshore mooring dolphin systems and pile under lateral spreading consideration. Both systems require their representation by FEs. The authors observed that one deterministic nonlinear FE-based analysis of realistic systems satisfying underlying physics, may take over several hours continuous running of a computer. The performance functions of these systems are expected to be implicit in nature and classical Monte Carlo Simulation can be used for the reliability evaluation. However, for the class of problems under consideration, it may require over several years of continuous running of a computer for about 100,000 simulations, and yet the extracted probability of failure information may not be representative. The proposed approach will extract the reliability information using only tens instead of hundreds or thousands of deterministic evaluations at intelligently selected points. The proposed method will be a hybrid approach by combining the stochastic finite element method, the response surface method, the first-order reliability analysis method and an iterative scheme. With the help of two examples on offshore mooring dolphin systems and pile under lateral spreading consideration, the novel procedure will be elaborated and its several advanced features will be presented.

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